Meaning
To understand how a situation is developing, especially the direction of public opinion, and so to be able to anticipate what will happen. Usually 'see' or 'know' which way the wind is blowing; often said of politicians or officials adjusting to the mood of voters before committing themselves. Neutral register; can imply genuine insight or cynical opportunism depending on the speaker's sympathy. Regional use: General English.
Origin
Reading wind direction was survival knowledge for sailors, huntsmen and farmers, which made it a natural byword for shrewd judgment. The Phrase Finder's earliest citation is figurative and political already: a Times of London advertisement of November 1819 promoting the radical satire The Political House that Jack Built as 'a straw thrown up to show which way the wind blows', and the sense tied to the tide of public opinion was current by the early 19th century. Etymonline treats the figurative phrase, for the current state of affairs, as medieval, dating it to the mid-14th century. The often-repeated framing through weathercocks or political weather-vanes is not confirmed in the sources consulted: the documented image is the straw cast into the air and wind-reading generally. Bob Dylan's 'Subterranean Homesick Blues' (1965), with its line about not needing a weatherman to know the way the wind blows, gave the old metaphor fresh countercultural life.
Research Sources
References used to check this entry’s meaning, history, or documented forms.
Variants
- know which way the wind is blowing
- see which way the wind is blowing
- which way the wind blows
Usage Examples
- Before announcing the policy, the minister spent a week in the provinces seeing which way the wind was blowing.
- Any strategist knows which way the wind blows in that district: jobs first, everything else after.
- The chairman watched the first ballots to see which way the wind blew before releasing his delegates.